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By - Jeff Mertes
Participating in a fantasy football draft might be likened to a meticulous car washing followed by a helter-skelter drive through mud puddles. Don’t get me wrong, preseason preparation is tantamount to having a successful season. However, there are a lot of mud puddles along the way to assembling a competitive roster.
For the most part, it is relatively easy to identify the pinnacles of position totem poles. Trust me, everybody in your draft knows about Daunte Culpepper and Peyton Manning, Priest Holmes and Ahman Green, Randy Moss and Marvin Harrison, Tony Gonzalez, Ray Lewis and Rodney Harrison along with others in the premier class of players with established reputations. The first few rounds of most drafts generally play out according to Hoyle.
Then, it gets interesting as the bye-week swamp starts to limit choices. For quite awhile, the bye-week schedule seemed as if it had been drawn-up by a monkey on crack with from two to six teams sharing the same week off during the course of the NFL slate of games. Happily, the scheduling ape went on the wagon last year and, again, a consistent four teams are on sabbatical over the course of eight weeks in 2004.
Still, bye-weeks are major factors. Beginning in the third round of NFL play and extending through the tenth, one-eighth of the teams are sidelined. So, once a first selection has been made, the pool for your second pick at that position is theoretically reduced by 12.5%. Especially at running back and wide receiver, where two or more players usually have to be started per week, the impact of byes can really bog down a team. For later selections, it can mean that the potential pool of players may be as low as 25% if the draft picks of competing teams are taken into account. Consequently, byes are major components in the player selection process. Bumbling-up on weeks off can create lineup voids at any position necessitating often unwanted transactions at inopportune times.
Let’s look at the bye bog impact on running backs. Say you’re lucky enough get to pick numero uno and make the typical move to snag a top pigskin packer. Priest Holmes is the primo tater toter on a great many draft lists. Tab him with a week 6 bye, though, and it more or less eliminates Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Tiki Barber and Marcel Shipp as potential picks. Go with Ahman Green (week 9 bye) and Fred Taylor, T.J. Duckett and Chris Brown are logically wiped out as follow-up picks. The selection of Clinton Portis (10) knocks Domanick Davis, Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley and Kevan Barlow out. The gem may actually be LaDainian Tomlinson (10) who is followed by a lesser group topped by a questionable Travis Minor and not much else. Since Tomlinson’s production isn’t far off that of Holmes, and the potential for a quality backfield mate that won’t conflict with his bye-week is far greater, selecting the Charger first makes a great deal of sense.
In most drafts, wide receivers typically aren’t selected until the third round. If you happen to be considering snapping-up the first receiver in a league that requires playing three, then byes need to be carefully scrutinized. Generally Randy Moss (bye-week #4), Torry Holt (8), Marvin Harrison (6) and Terrell Owens (6) are considered to be the premier biscuit catchers. If Moss is passed over, then Darrell Jackson, Charlie Rogers and Koren Robinson are still potential second receivers. Skip over Torry Holt and the opportunity to add Joe Horn, Keenan McCardell or Isaac Bruce as #2s remains intact. Although Aquan Boldin and Amani Toomer would be eliminated as fellow bye-week six players, the logical choice is to select either Marvin Harrison or Terrell Owens as the first wide receiver pick with Harrison more than likely getting the nod.
No matter how well prepared the draft list, paying attention to bye-week strategy can avert a big gob of roster muck at the end of the draft. Keep depth options in mind as categorized by weeks off when weighing players projected to have relatively similar production so that conflicts can be averted, especially at positions where two or more must be started for each game. Creating a pre-draft depth chart based on bye-weeks provides a quick reference to eliminate conflicts and strengthen positions by increasing viable options in second and third tier rounds.
Ah, there’s nothing quite like taking a buffed, shining draft vehicle for a spin. A look ahead to bypass bye-week bogs will help to keep you rolling toward assembling a team that just might cleanup at season’s end.
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