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By - Jeff Mertes
Every year, fantasy team owners are tempted by rookies who look like sure-fire studs that can’t miss as impact players right out of the chute. So, BAM, they nab them, all too often, early in the draft…then watch “can’t miss” neophytes flounder well into the regular season. At least in some minds, it’s a rookie dilemma.
Of course, there have been exceptions (aren’t there always?). Fantasy team owners tend to remember those aberrations like visitors to Las Vegas who always claim to “win a few bucks” or “break about even.” How can casino operators afford to build opulent palaces to gambling if players invariably win or break even?
Even though the game you are playing is called ‘fantasy’ football, it’s time to get real about drafting rookies. Does it pay to hit on seventeen at the blackjack table? Think of most rookies as tempting face card-sevens. Sure, every once in awhile, taking an adrenaline pumping hit wins the hand, but over the long haul, it will take a big bite out of the ol’ bank account. Without doubt, the most successful philosophy behind winning at fantasy football, or blackjack, is to play the odds.
Indeed, a few rookies make big impacts each year and are remembered as incredibly insightful examples of an owner’s drafting prowess while floundering performances of baby-faced brethren are quickly dismissed and forgotten. Generally, blue chippers who actually come through are most often found at running back, linebacker and cornerback. But for each one that pans out, four or five bite the proverbial bullet. And there are certain positions that virtually never produce decent fantasy numbers for first year pros no matter how highly touted out of college. The most untouchable, on each side of the ball, are rookie quarterbacks and defensive tackles. Forget how terrific they might seem during preseason games, let someone else take the tumble.
Granted, some rookies start off slowly, then pick up the pace in the season’s mid-point after learning the ropes and shaking off the shock of high level NFL competition. Remember, suddenly these guys have to go toe-to-toe with the best of the best on every down. They’ve gone from being campus prime cuts, to just so much raw meat. It usually takes major mental adjustment as well as the development of strength and technique. Rather than drafting somewhat blindly, it makes more sense to note rookie performances and make pickups as warranted during the course of the season. That said, a caution needs to be heeded – the pro season is substantially longer and more physical than college campaigns and tend to wear down first year players who may not be totally acclimated to the grind.
As previously mentioned, positions are very important to even the likelihood of rookie success from a fantasy football perspective. A brief position-by-position breakdown follows as a guide should a rookie or two start to make your mouth water and your brain to breach –
QUARTERBACK - Don’t even think about it. Nobody really does diddly from a fantasy football standpoint as a rookie starting signal caller. Even the best of the lot, Peyton Manning, threw more interceptions (28) than touchdown passes (26). Sure, his 3,739 yards flinging the pig snout are pretty impressive, but remember, his total represents the most primo of all rookie starting performances. Last year, Byron Leftwich stepped into the breach and hit 14 of his guys for TD’s, but misfired to wrong colored jerseys 16 times. His 2,819 yards were the second most posted by top rookie QB starters in the last ten years or so. Ten of the best first year flingers tossed for an average of 2,510 yards in 13 starts while throwing 14 touchdown passes with 16 pilfered. Under the best of circumstances, don’t expect any more…forget about Eli Manning (Giants), Phillip Rivers (Chargers) and Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers). Gas-o-line: NOT IN A BIZILLION YEARS!
RUNNING BACK – As mentioned previously, this is one of the spots rookies can be productive. Unfortunately, pinpointing who will be the budding stud is a difficult proposition. Especially since it quite often is a relatively unknown college back that takes the ball and runs with it as a first year pro (remember a spud packer named Terrell Davis?). Pigskin toters tend to make the grade sooner because the position requires raw talent and speed. Plus, with the pounding that has to be absorbed by running backs, the window of productivity is the shortest of any NFL position (remember Terrell Davis?). Once a rusher hits 30, should survival even last that long, he is usually likened to an apple left hanging in a tree after harvest has been completed. It’s just a matter of time before the drop. The best of recent rooks have been Clinton Portis (12 starts, 1,508 yds, 15 rushing TD’s, 364 receiving yds, 2 receiving TD’s) and Edgerrin James (16 starts, 1,553 yds, 13 rushing TD’s, 586 receiving yds, 4 receiving TD’s). Last year’s top newbie rambler was Domanick Davis (10 starts, 1,031 yds, 8 TD’s, 351 receiving yds, 0 receiving TD’s). Looking back at twenty of the best, they averaged 11 starts, packed for 1,031 yards, hit paydirt 8 times, caught tosses for 265 yards with 1 for a touchdown. Certainly respectable numbers – but those are elite examples. Still, if you have the rookie itch, a scratch may be warranted for a team’s third or fourth RB. And, as in Domanick Davis’ (Texans) case, adding a rookie as a free agent a few weeks into the season probably makes the most sense especially as starters become nicked. Among this year’s crop, keep an eye on Julius Jones (Cowboys – Bill Parcells always seems to develop a young running back), Tatum Bell (Broncos – ditto for Mike Shanahan), Kevin Jones (Lions – somebody has to take the pill for a ride in Detroit), and don’t forget about Willis McGahee (Bills – okay, so he isn’t technically a rookie, but he didn’t play last year). Gas-o-line: LOOK FOR A LATE BARGAIN, OR NAB A ROOK AFTER THE SEASON STARTS.
WIDE RECEIVER – Okay, now, tell me how many fantasy football experts had Anquan Boldin (Cardinals) up in the stratosphere of their receiver draft lists. Boldin’s rookie success (16 games started, 1,377 yds, 8 TD’s) was almost as good as Randy Moss’ initial campaign (11 games started, 1,313 yds, 17 TD’s). For every Moss, though, there are big name receivers like Terrell Owens (10 games started, 520 yds, 4 TD’s) and Torry Holt (15 games started, 788 yds, 6 TD’s) who posted ho-hum numbers as rooks. Even Jerry Rice didn’t exactly light ‘em up his first year (4 games started, 927 yds, 3 TD’s) and Marvin Harrison was a rather dim bulb (15 games started, 836 yds, 8 TD’s). In all, a group of 28 that went on to become stalwart receivers averaged 11 games started, 714 yards and 5 touchdowns – hardly numbers to make fantasy football owners skip and shout. Generally, aside from Moss, Boldin, Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway, breaking a grand by hauling-in aerials has been a rarity among green receivers. It usually takes two or three seasons for wide receivers to become “go-to” productive. Only one or two per year are typically worth a draft nod – and usually as third or fourth pass snatchers, at that. Some temptation exists this year, however, with what has been ranked as an exceptional crop of rookie flying tater grabbers. Best bets are Reggie Williams (Jaguars), Roy Williams (Lions), Michael Jenkins (Falcons), Jerricho Cotchery (Jets) and Rashaun Woods (49ers). Several are on teams that may have to come from behind and therefore pass a lot. Larry Fitzgerald, the #1 receiver in the NFL draft, may have a tough time being productive on the first go around for the Cardinals since he has to battle Boldin and Bryant Johnson for balls. Gas-o-line: IT’S NOTHING BUT A CRAP SHOOT.
TIGHT END – Everyone knows there are only three veteran stud tight ends now that Shannon Sharpe has retired – Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs), Jeremy Shockey (Giants) and Todd Heap (Ravens). That’s a mighty skinny list. Shockey was by far the best of the lot as a rookie with 14 games started, 894 yds and 2 touchdowns. Gonzalez (no games started, 368 yds, 2 TD’s) and Heap (6 games started, 206 yds, 1 TD) bordered on pitiful. Normally, first year tight ends aren’t worth considering because, even by paltry production standards typical of the position, they don’t do much. An average of 20 of the best in the NFL managed just 10 games started, 395 yds and 2 touchdowns. Yawn. This year, though, two draftees appear to be a notch above normal - Ben Troupe (Titans - a system that likes to throw to tight ends) and Kellen Winslow (Browns). Of course, Winslow, the guy signaled-out as possessing hall of fame potential (he already has the name and the genes), may not sign. Unless you can get one of the big three, it doesn’t much matter who you take at this position. Winslow might make it a foursome at the top, but who knows? Gas-o-line: IF YOUR LEAGUE REQUIRES TIGHT ENDS (WHY NOT FULLBACKS?) LOBBY TO HAVE THEM LUMPED IN WITH WIDE RECEIVERS.
PLACE KICKER – Whoa, Nellie…rookie booters don’t get to use kicking tees like they did in college. Pass big time on any young kicker until he proves he can get it up and over those big ol’ onrushing linemen. Gas-o-line: DRAFT A ROOKIE PK AND YOU MIGHT AS WELL SUCK ON AN EXHAUST PIPE.
DEFENSIVE END – This is one of the positions that tends to produce decent numbers by former college stars as first year pros. Last year Kevin Williams played 16 games, posted 10.5 sacks, 36 tackles, 15 assists and an interception for the Vikings to top the rookie crop. An average of 27 name defensive rookies in recent years equaled 15 games played, 6 sacks, 32 tackles, 9 assists and no interceptions. Several, though, were potent forces including Jevon Kearse (16 games, 14.5 sacks, 48 tackles, 9 assists, 0 int.), Julius Peppers (12 games, 12.5 sacks, 28 tackles, 7 assists, 1 int.), Simeon Rice (16 games, 12.5 sacks, 41 tackles, 9 assists, 0 int.) and Dwight Freeney (16 games, 13 sacks, 40 tackles, 1 assist, 0 int.). Often, rookie DE’s have productive campaigns because they are positioned at the opposite end of defensive lines from established NFL pass rushers who draw double team blocking. Since 1996, 62.5% of the first defensive ends taken in the NFL draft each year have produced numbers worthy of consideration in fantasy football drafts with 4 of the 8 posting top tier stats. For the first 5 defensive ends taken each year, 30.8% have produced numbers worthy of consideration. Consequently, Will Smith (#1-Saints) and Kenechi Udeze (#2-Vikings) may be rookies to watch. Gas-o-line: CHECK THE OTHER END OF THE LINE AND A ROOKIE MAY SHINE.
DEFENSIVE TACKLE – Generally, because of the extremely physical nature of the position, defensive tackles need a couple years of seasoning, bulking up, and strengthening. These sumos of scrimmage trenches seldom chalk-up as much as those on the ends of the line. Dana Stubblefield produced the best stats in recent years as a rook (16 games, 10.5 sacks, 52 tackles, 7 assists, 0 int.) and Corey Simon was next (16 games, 9.5 sacks, 38 tackles, 14 assists, 0 int.). Thirteen rookie interior lineman who went on to star averaged 15 games, 4 sacks, 31 tackles, 9 assists and no interceptions as rookies. Even more telling, only 2 of the 8 first defensive tackles taken in the NFL draft held any value in fantasy football with only one posting outstanding numbers. It all means that Tommie Harris (Bears) is the lone rookie hole plugger worth considering – and only towards the tail end of the draft. Gas-o-line: VETS ARE YOUR BEST BETS.
LINEBACKER – If the defensive scoring system of your league recognizes tackles, then linebackers are undisputed kings of the ‘D’. The type of defensive scheme run by an NFL team – either 4-3 or 3-4 – impacts linebackers more than any other position. In a 3-4, outside linebackers are more like pass rushing defensive ends. Inside linebackers generally produce humongous tackling stats while those on the outside get to the quarterback more often. Rookie linebackers often come out of the chute snarling, knocking heads and disrupting opposing attacks. In 2003, Nick Barnett (Packers) ruled the roost on the inside (15 games, 2 sacks, 86 tackles, 26 assists, 3 int.) and Terrell Suggs (Ravens) patrolled the outside to post impressive numbers (16 games, 12 sacks, 19 tackles, 8 assists, 1 int.). A sample of 42 rookie linebackers who became NFL stalwarts averaged 15 games, 2.5 sacks, 54 tackles, 16 assists and no interceptions. Usually the NFL draft produces a great deal of depth among rookie linebackers who contribute immediately on the pro gridiron. In the past eight years, 36.6% of the first five linebackers taken in each draft posted stats that warranted consideration by fantasy football teams. Of the first linebackers drafted into the NFL each year, 50% have produced top tier stats as rookies while 62.5% would have been worthy of a fantasy roster spot. This season, Jonathan Vilma (Jets) on the inside and D.J. Williams (Broncos) on the outside should be among linebacker fantasy draft picks. In addition, Karlos Dansby (Cardinals) and Teddy Lehman (Lions) are likely to be worthy selections later on. Gas-o-line: A TOP YOUNG BACKER CAN PRODUCE BANG FOR THE BUCK.
CORNERBACK – In fantasy football circles, cornerback might be defined as a contrary position. Because offensive coordinators try to pick on defensive weaknesses, rookies on the corner are repeatedly tested. And since they see a lot of action, opportunities to produce solid stats mount up for young cornerbacks, especially if playing on the opposite side of the field from a star quality veteran. A proven defender on the corner often drops off fantasy charts until he slows a step due to injury or age and once again is targeted by attacks as a weak link. Since cornerbacks are considered to be the best athletes on pro teams, raw athletic ability is an important aspect of rookies being able to be immediately productive at the position. Last season, Terence Newman (Cowboys) paced neophyte corners (16 games, 1 sack, 66 tackles, 10 assists, 4 int., 17 passes defensed) with Charles Tillman (Bears) also posting solid numbers (16 games, 1 sack, 76 tackles, 7 assists, 4 int., 8 passes defensed). An average of 33 cornerbacks as rookies shows a typical total of 15 games, ½ a sack, 47 tackles, 8 assists and 3 interceptions. Of the five top corners drafted each year into the NFL over the past eight years, 34.2% posted stats worthy of a spot on a fantasy football roster. Among eight first drafted cornerbacks, three produced top tier statistics (37.5%) and 9 of 16 (56.3%) were worthy of fantasy roster spots. This all indicates that DeAngelo Hall (Falcons), Dunta Robinson (Texans) and Ahmad Carroll (Packers) are rookies likely to produce stats worthy of fantasy football consideration. Gas-o-line: ROOKIE CORNERS ARE TESTED EARLY ON.
SAFETY - This is a divided position with strong safeties more prone to making tackles and providing run support and free safeties doing more ball hawking. Rookie safeties are less likely than cornerbacks to step into starting roles and, compared to veteran counterparts, aren’t generally as highly regarded because experience is an important factor in succeeding at the position. In 2003, Ken Hamlin (Seahawks) was the top first year safety (16 games, 0 sacks, 76 tackles, 20 assists, 1 int.). A sample of 19 rookie safeties who went on to become stalwarts shows an average of 15 games, 1 sack, 57 tackles, 13 assists and 2 interceptions. Fewer safeties than cornerbacks are typically highly drafted into the NFL. Veteran safeties as a group, though, are usually more productive in a fantasy football sense than corners. Only 25% of first or second picked safeties produced numbers that would warrant a fantasy football roster spot with 2 of 16 (12.5%) posting top tier stats. If he starts, Bob Sanders (Colts) would be the only rookie safety worth a late consideration. Gas-o-line: PLAY SAFE BY FOREGOING
ROOKIE SAFETIES.
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