Fantasy Football NFL Cheat Sheets, Rankings and Projections

NFL injuries dictate drafting for a five week season

By - Jeff Mertes

You’ve dotted every blasted I and crossed all the T’s.  You’ve evaluated more than enough meaningful players and have a game plan in place for drafting positions.  You’ve accounted for bye weeks to eliminate potential scheduling conflicts.  Now there’s nothing to stop you…you’re on your way to being #1!  Then the meat wagon putts onto the gridiron to cart off one of your fallen blue chippers.  And the season takes a hairpin turn.

Injuries are a humongous part of the fantasy football game.  Who can predict when a hangnail might transform your star receiver into “doubtful”?  Whether major season ending injuries, or nagging owies that just won’t heal up, it would truly be a miracle if your team went through the season unscathed.

Every year, though, fantasy football owners whine like pups weaned from favorite teats when a big gunner bites the turf.  They go into states of shock and disbelief, lamenting their bad luck and the hopelessness of the situation now at hand.  God knows, something like this could only happen to them.  No doubt, it hurts.  But, the blow can be lessoned with planning and, perhaps, preemptive action.

First of all, you need to understand the NFL’s rather imprecise system of injury reporting.  Other than for “IR” and “Out” designations, the differences between “Doubtful,” “Questionable,” and “Probable” might have been determined by a blindfolded orangutang and a dartboard.  The only sure things are when a player is placed on Injured Reserve (or IR) because he’s so damaged that there’s zero chance for any more game action during the rest of the season, or if designated to be “Out” for an upcoming game.  When your players are tagged with either of these designations, then their fates are cemented.

The rest, at times, seems to be so much strategic hoo-haw.  Supposedly, when a gridder is listed as “Doubtful” in NFL vernacular, he has just a 25% chance of playing. “Questionable” indicates that the prospects are 50/50 that he’ll get into the mix, and “Probable” foretells a 75% chance of playing.  But, for crying out loud, don’t take any of it to the bank.

Here’s a useful key - when selecting players, assume you’re drafting for a five week season rather than a full campaign.  Don’t sit back, after the draft, overconfidently thumping your chest because you ‘really nailed it.’   Instead, figure that you just might be in good stead for about the first five games.  If you’re Fightin’ Irish lucky, that is.

Why five games?  According to the 2003 season, an average of 3.40 players (QB, RB, WR, TE, DL, LB, DB) per NFL team each week for the first five games were listed as either on “IR,” “Out,” “Doubtful,” or “Questionable” – indicating that these dinged-up gridders had a 50% chance or less of playing in the upcoming game.  By comparison, the next five games were plagued with an average of 4.23 more severely injured players in the same categories – an increase of 24.4%.

Of course, the logic of escalating injuries as the season progresses makes perfect sense.  Afterall, NFL football is a bone crunching game that keeps trainers and orthopaedic surgeons fat and sassy.  And the fifth week of the season appears to be the jump-off point into an injury neverland that never improves, worsening more on beyond the tenth game.

Assume from the first slobber knock that you’ll have to deal with injuries sooner or later.  Rather than waiting until the hammer falls, keep track of available players in your league and make preemptive acquisitions of those trending upward to replace under achievers on your squad (be sure to note bye weeks beginning in NFL week #3 – if a transaction is made in week #5, for example, be sure to recognize that players with third and fourth weeks off won’t have any bye week conflicts).  Keep that week #5 line of demarcation in mind and make your move in advance.  If nothing else, you’ll remove a dark horse from the pool of potential opponents – one less player to score against you.  Sure, it sounds a bit selfish…but I’ll be darned if it doesn’t help win titles.