Step away from that draft pick
By – Jeff Mertes
Okay, its decision time.  In the heat of your league’s fantasy football drafting frenzy, a choice has to be made. Who to take?  Who to take! Temptations lurk, one miscue and the season might be shot.  Who to take?

Perhaps the question should be, ”Who shouldn’t I take?”  For the most part, drafting is like a game of poker or bridge.  Success is really more about playing the odds than anything else.  It shouldn’t be a crapshoot.  Sure, the temptation of grabbing a proverbial sleeper is ever present.  Someone that no other rival owner has even considered at the particular moment you feel compelled to take him.  Someone that causes the rest of the league to squash beer cans against their foreheads after realizing that they missed out.  If that’s what you’re thinking, well, start gearing-up for the Toilet Bowl, buddy.

For the most part, pass on rookies.  Not only do they seldom produce as neophytes, picking a rookie in the draft is hardly different than a blind man trying to hit a 98 mph fastball.  Making contact is no more than blind-ass luck.  It’s better to look for rookies on the waiver wire a few weeks into the season after getting an indication that they can swim rather than sink.

If you have a choice, don’t take a problem child.  If he’s been in the hoosgow in recent memory, take a deep breath and look for someone else.  If he hasn’t yet realized that there isn’t an I in TEAM, pass him by.

Try to get players in prime years for their positions.  Over the hill often means ripe for injury.  Too much peach fuzz equals erratic performance, if any performance at all.

All this said, here’s a list of players that you might want think twice, or even thrice, about before giving them one of your precious roster spots –

Koren Robinson, wr, Vikings –This guy will self-destruct sooner rather than later.  No matter how good things seem on the field, he’ll find a way to disappoint off it.  Forget him. 

Dominic Rhodes, rb, Colts –No character issues here.  But just because he’s inherited a starting spot filling Edge’s big shoes, it doesn’t mean he has what it takes, or durability, to make anyone forget James’ ball packing in Indy.  Rhodes has been plagued with knee and shoulder issues even as a bit player.  Imagine what is likely to happen after being pounded as the featured back.  Plus, rookie Joseph Addai should take away more than a few carries per game.   

Jerry Porter, wr, Raiders –Porter is a pariah in the locker room with an overblown concept of his worth to the team…to any team, for that matter.  Nobody likes his attitude including any quarterback he plays with who’s bound to look to other receivers rather than dish him the skin. 

Corey Dillon, rb, Patriots –Dillon is still a quality turd-toter when healthy, but he’s had leg injuries and is well past the age thirty cellophane barrier for running backs.  And now the Pats seem to have an alternative in rookie Laurence Maroney who should swipe more and more sorties as the season progresses. 

Brett Favre, qb, Packers –Favre is one of the all-time great QBs.  That said, he’s beyond potency as a fantasy passer, and has been for some time.  Perhaps, last season should have been finis for the sure thing Hall of Famer. 

Ashley Lelie, wr, Broncos –Here’s a player who really hasn’t produced diddily, but seems to think he has for some unknown reason.  Leave this unrealized potential alone. 

Aaron Brooks, qb, Raiders –He has all the tools and a few years ago was tabbed as a bonafide prospect, but hasn’t improved with experience.  Now with a new team, in a new system, Brooksie is bound to bumble in an avalanche of poor passing decisions. 

Terrell Owens, wr, Cowboys –So tempting.  But this is a known commodity.  No surprises, even with Parcells calling the shots.  After all, he was able to ignore Keyshawn Johnson’s big yapper and bloated ego while wringing some decent production from him.  T.O. did produce in Philly his first year.  Coach Reid, though, was incredibly tolerant.  Even with Owens on his best behavior, the risk of implosion in Big D isn’t worth it.     

Being over the hill varies by position.  Be wary of the following list of very seasoned veterans on the brink of decline or already slipin’ and slidin’ due to age – 

Quarterbacks (37 or older): Favre, Packers (37) and Brad Johnson, Vikings (38)

Running Backs (33 or older): Priest Holmes, Chiefs (33); Mike Anderson, Ravens (33) and Curtis Martin, Jets (33)

Wide Receivers (34 or older):  Joe Horn, Saints (34); Joey Galloway, Buccaneers (34); Keenan McCardell, Chargers (36); Keyshawn Johnson, Panthers (34); Rod Smith, Broncos (36) and Marvin Harrison, Colts (34)

Tight Ends (34 or older):  Marcus Pollard, Lions (34)

Defensive Linemen (33 or older):  Orpheus Roye, Browns (33); Pat Williams, Vikings (34); Philip Daniels, Redskins (33); Bryant Young, 49ers (34); Lance Johnstone, Vikings (34); Kevin Carter, Dolphins (33) and Michael Strahan, Giants (34)

Linebackers (33 or older):  Donnie Edwards, Chargers (33); Derrick Brooks, Buccaneers (33); Shelton Quarles, Buccaneers (35); Tedy Bruschi, Patriots (33); Randall Godfrey, Chargers (33); Willie McGinest, Browns (34) and Zach Thomas, Dolphins (33)        

Defensive Backs (34 or older):  John Lynch, Broncos (35) and Troy Vincent, Bills (35)