Don’t fumble away chances when drafting rookies

Even though the game you are playing is called ‘fantasy’ football, it’s time to get real about drafting rookies. Does it pay to hit on seventeen at the blackjack table? Think of most rookies as tempting face card-sevens. Sure, every once in awhile, taking an adrenaline pumping hit wins the hand, but over the long haul, it will take a big bite out of the ol’ bank account. Without doubt, the most successful philosophy behind winning at fantasy football, or blackjack, is to play the odds.

Generally, blue chippers who actually come through are most often found at cornerback, linebacker and running back. But for each one that meets preseason expectations, many more don’t get the job done as rookies. Certain positions virtually never produce decent fantasy numbers for first year pros no matter how highly touted out of college. The most untouchable, on each side of the ball, are rookie quarterbacks and defensive tackles. Forget how terrific they might seem during preseason, let one of the other teams in your league cough up the ball at the goal line.

There is a tendency for some rookies to start off slowly before becoming productive during the season’s mid-point after learning the ropes and shaking off the shock of high-level NFL competition. Remember, suddenly these guys have to go toe-to-toe with the best of the best on every down. They’ve gone from being campus prime cuts, to just so much raw meat. It usually takes major mental adjustment as well as the development of strength and technique to succeed. Rather than drafting somewhat blindly, it makes more sense to note rookie performances and make pick-ups as warranted during the course of the season. Invariably, as the campaign unfolds, a few ‘surprise’ first year players step into the breach, after starting veterans bite the bullet due to injuries, and become viable pick-ups compared to other waiver wire choices.

That said, a caution needs to be heeded – the NFL season is substantially longer and more physical than college and tends to wear down rooks that may not be totally acclimated to the grind. It’s wise to heed this advice before making a fateful draft selection in the heat of the moment - take a deep breath and ‘step away from the rookie.’ If that peach fuzz itch absolutely needs to be scratched, and it meets a roster depth need, then proceed with caution.

As noted earlier, positions are very important to even the likelihood of rookie success from a fantasy football perspective. A brief position-by-position breakdown follows as a guide should a rookie seem to be an irresistible temptation –

QUARTERBACK - Don’t even think about it. Nobody really shines from a fantasy football standpoint as a rookie starting signal caller. Even the best of the lot, Peyton Manning, threw more interceptions (28) than touchdown passes (26). Sure, his 3,739 yards flinging pig snouts are pretty impressive, but remember, his total represents the best of all rookie starting performances. Last season, Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) paced rookie passers with 17 scoring strikes among 2,621 yards while only throwing 11 interceptions. Top NFL pick Eli Manning (Giants) struggled to complete for just 1,043 yards while being picked-off 9 times compared to only 6 td passes. The year before, Byron Leftwich (Panthers) stepped into the breach and hit 14 of his guys for TDs, but misfired to wrong colored jerseys 16 times. His 2,819 yards were the second most posted by top rookie quarterback starters in the last ten years or so. Ten of the best first year flingers tossed for an average of 2,510 yards in 13 starts while throwing 14 touchdown passes with 16 pilfered. Under the best of circumstances, don’t expect any more…forget about Alex Smith (49ers), Aaron Rodgers (Packers) or Jason Campbell (Redskins). Gas-o-line: DRAFTING A ROOKIE QB MAKES LESS THAN NO SENSE.

RUNNING BACK – As mentioned previously, this is one of the spots rookies can be productive. Unfortunately, pinpointing who will be the budding stud is a difficult proposition. Especially since it quite often is a relatively unknown college back that takes the ball and runs with it as a first year pro (remember a spud packer named Terrell Davis?). Pigskin toters tend to make the grade sooner because the position requires raw talent and speed. Plus, with the pounding that has to be absorbed by running backs, the window of productivity is the shortest of any NFL position (remember Terrell Davis?). Once a rusher hits 30, should survival even last that long, he is usually likened to an apple left hanging in a tree after harvest has been completed. It’s just a matter of time before the drop. The best of recent rooks have been Clinton Portis (12 starts, 1,508 yds, 15 rushing TD’s, 364 receiving yds, 2 receiving TD’s) and Edgerrin James (16 starts, 1,553 yds, 13 rushing TD’s, 586 receiving yds, 4 receiving TD’s). In 2004, Kevin Jones (Lions) toted for 1,133 yards in 15 games with 5 paydirt packs, and hauled-in passes for 180 yards including a touchdown connection. The top newbie rambler in 2003 was Domanick Davis (10 starts, 1,031 yds, 8 TD’s, 351 receiving yds, 0 receiving TD’s). Looking back at twenty of the best, they averaged 11 starts, packed for 1,031 yards, hit paydirt 8 times, caught tosses for 265 yards with 1 for a touchdown. Certainly respectable numbers – but those are elite examples. Still, if you have the rookie itch, a scratch may be warranted for a fantasy team’s third or fourth RB. Rather than drafting a rookie running back (unless he’s a sure-fire starter on a run oriented team), pick one up as a free agent a few weeks into the season when starters become nicked. This year, Ronnie Brown (Dolphins) and Cedric Benson (Bears) are best bets to gain starting berths. Gas-o-line: LOOK FOR A LATE BARGAIN, OR NAB A ROOK AFTER THE SEASON STARTS.

WIDE RECEIVER – Rookie stars that have been hugely productive on college gridirons are often tempting picks. Every fantasy team drafter has Randy Moss’s first year production of 1,313 yards and 17 TDs in 11 games indelibly imprinted in his or her brain. For every Moss, though, there are big name receivers like Terrell Owens (10 games started, 520 yds, 4 TDs) and Torry Holt (15 games started, 788 yds, 6 TDs) who posted ho-hum numbers as rooks. Even Jerry Rice didn’t exactly light ‘em up his first year (4 games started, 927 yds, 3 TDs) and Marvin Harrison was a rather dim bulb (15 games started, 836 yds, 8 TDs). Last year, Michael Clayton (Bucs) was the best of neophyte pass grabbers (13 of 16 games started, 80 receptions for 1,193 yards and 7 TDs). Generally, aside from Moss, Clayton, Anquan Boldin, Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway, breaking a grand by hauling-in aerials has been a rarity among green receivers. It usually takes two or three seasons for wide receivers to become “go-to” productive. Only one or two per year are typically worth a draft nod – and usually as third or fourth pass snatchers, at that. Some temptation exists this year, however, with what has been ranked as a talented crop of rookie flying tater grabbers. Best for 2005 are Braylon Edwards (Browns) and Troy Williamson (Vikings). Gas-o-line: IT’S NOTHING BUT A CRAP SHOOT.

TIGHT END – The position has been re-created in the mold of Tony Gonzalez – the most productive tight end in recent years. Joining him last season were Antonio Gates (Chargers) and Jason Witten (Cowboys) while injury prone Jeremy Shockey (Giants) and Todd Heap (Ravens) are in the same productive category. Now, almost every team wants a super-sized wide receiver type at the position. Shockey was by far the best of the lot as a rookie with 14 games started, 894 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gonzalez (no games started, 368 yds, 2 TDs) and Heap (6 games started, 206 yds, 1 TD) bordered on pitiful. Normally, first year tight ends aren’t worth considering because, even by paltry production standards typical of the position, they don’t do much. An average of 20 of the best in the NFL managed just 10 games started, 395 yards and 2 touchdowns. Last season’s great expectations of rookie stardom at the position posed by Kellen Winslow (Browns) ended when he went down for the season in the first game. Last season’s leading rookie tight end was Chris Cooley (Redskins) who only managed to snag 37 passes for 314 yards, but did score 6 touchdowns. Prospects for 2005 are rather skinny at this position with Heath Miller (Steelers) about the only bonafide fantasy football candidate. Gas-o-line: IF YOUR LEAGUE REQUIRES TIGHT ENDS (WHY NOT FULLBACKS?) LOBBY TO HAVE THEM LUMPED IN WITH WIDE RECEIVERS, BUT IF YOU HAVE TO DRAFT TIGHTIES, SKIP ROOKS TO MAKE A SPLASH.

PLACE KICKER – Whoa, Nellie…rookie booters don’t get to use kicking tees like they did in college. Pass big time on any young kicker until he proves he can get it up and over those big ol’ onrushing linemen. Gas-o-line: DRAFT A ROOKIE PK AND YOU MIGHT AS WELL SUCK ON AN EXHAUST PIPE.

DEFENSIVE END – This is one of the positions that normally tends to produce decent numbers by former college stars as first year pros. An average of 27 name defensive end rookies in recent years equaled 15 games played, 6 sacks, 32 tackles, 9 assists and no interceptions. Several, though, were potent forces including Jevon Kearse (16 games, 14.5 sacks, 48 tackles, 9 assists, 0 int.), Julius Peppers (12 games, 12.5 sacks, 28 tackles, 7 assists, 1 int.), Simeon Rice (16 games, 12.5 sacks, 41 tackles, 9 assists, 0 int.) and Dwight Freeney (16 games, 13 sacks, 40 tackles, 1 assist, 0 int.). Often, rookie DEs have productive campaigns because they are positioned at the opposite end of defensive lines from established NFL pass rushers who draw double team blocking. That said, last season was an exception – Jared Allen (Chiefs) paced rookie defensive ends with just 10 starts in 16 games, 9 sacks, 29 tackles, 1 assist, and 0 interceptions. Prospects for the 2005 season should be interesting at this position. Demarcus Ware (Cowboys), the highest drafted defensive end, will probably end up at outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. Like last season, it might be prudent to concentrate on veteran DEs in this year’s draft. Gas-o-line: CHECK THE OTHER END OF THE LINE AND A ROOKIE MAY SHINE.

DEFENSIVE TACKLE – Generally, because of the extremely physical nature of the position, defensive tackles need a couple years of seasoning, bulking up, and strengthening. These sumos of scrimmage trenches seldom chalk-up as much as those on the ends of the line. Dana Stubblefield produced the best stats in recent years as a rook (16 games, 10.5 sacks, 52 tackles, 7 assists, 0 int.) and Corey Simon was next (16 games, 9.5 sacks, 38 tackles, 14 assists, 0 int.). Thirteen rookie interior lineman who went on to star averaged 15 games, 4 sacks, 31 tackles, 9 assists and no interceptions as rookies. Even more telling, only 2 of the 9 first defensive tackles taken in the NFL draft held any value in fantasy football with only one posting outstanding numbers. So, avoid rookie defensive tackles…period. Gas-o-line: VETS ARE YOUR BEST BETS.

LINEBACKER – If the defensive scoring system of your league recognizes tackles, then linebackers are undisputed kings of the ‘D’. The type of defensive scheme run by an NFL team – either 4-3 or 3-4 – impacts linebackers more than any other position. In a 3-4, outside linebackers are more like pass rushing defensive ends. Inside linebackers generally produce humongous tackling stats while those on the outside get to the quarterback more often. Rookie linebackers often come out of the chute snarling, knocking heads and disrupting opposing attacks. This past season, outside linebacker D.J. Williams (Broncos) was most productive (16 games, 2 sacks, 81 tackles, 6 assists, 1 int.). On the inside, Jonathan Vilma (Jets) was top producer (16 games, 2 sacks, 77 tackles, 30 assists, 3 int.). In 2003, Nick Barnett (Packers) ruled the roost on the inside (15 games, 2 sacks, 86 tackles, 26 assists, 3 int.) and Terrell Suggs (Ravens) patrolled the outside to post impressive numbers (16 games, 12 sacks, 19 tackles, 8 assists, 1 int.). A sample of 42 rookie linebackers who became NFL stalwarts averaged 15 games, 2.5 sacks, 54 tackles, 16 assists and no interceptions. Usually the NFL draft produces decent depth among rookie linebackers who contribute immediately on the pro gridiron. Of the first linebackers drafted into the NFL each year, 50% have produced top tier stats as rookies while 62.5% would have been worthy of a fantasy roster spot. With a trend in the NFL to move smaller, pass rushing defensive ends to outside linebacker in 3-4 schemes, linebackers on the outside may actually play more like pass rushing DEs. Fitting that mold this season are Demarcus Ware (Cowboys) and Shawne Merriman (Chargers) – both should be considered. A more traditional OLB likely to be productive is Derrick Johnson (Chiefs) while no one is expected to be exceptionally dominant on the inside as a rookie. Gas-o-line: A TOP YOUNG BACKER CAN PRODUCE BANG FOR THE BUCK.

CORNERBACK – In fantasy football circles, cornerback might be defined as a contrary position. Because offensive coordinators try to pick on defensive weaknesses, rookies on the corner are repeatedly tested. And since they see a lot of action, opportunities to produce solid stats mount up for young cornerbacks, especially if playing on the opposite side of the field from a star quality veteran. A proven defender on the corner often drops off fantasy charts until he slows a step due to injury or age and once again is targeted by attacks as a weak link. Since cornerbacks are considered to be the best athletes on pro teams, raw athletic ability is an important aspect of rookies being able to be immediately productive at the position. Pacing cornerbacks during 2004 were Dunta Robinson (Texans) with 3 sacks, 73 tackles, 14 assists and 6 interceptions in 15 games. Also very productive were Panther Chris Gamble (16 games, 0 sacks, 68 tackles, 6 assists, 6 int.) and Bengal Madieu Williams (16 games, 2 sacks, 86 tackles, 17 assists, 3 int., 1 TD). In 2003, Terence Newman (Cowboys) paced neophyte corners (16 games, 1 sack, 66 tackles, 10 assists, 4 int.) with Charles Tillman (Bears) also posting solid numbers (16 games, 1 sack, 76 tackles, 7 assists, 4 int.). An average of 33 top cornerbacks as rookies shows a typical total of 15 games, ½ a sack, 47 tackles, 8 assists and 3 interceptions. The 2005 NFL draft was rich in cornerbacks with five in the first round. Best of the lot from a fantasy football standpoint are Antrel Rolle (Cardinals), Adam Jones (Titans), Carlos Rogers (Redskins) and Marlin Jackson (Colts). Gas-o-line: ROOKIE CORNERS ARE TESTED EARLY ON.

SAFETY - This is a divided position with strong safeties more prone to making tackles and providing run support and free safeties doing more ball hawking. Rookie safeties are less likely than cornerbacks to step into starting roles and, compared to veteran counterparts, aren’t usually as highly regarded because experience is an important factor in succeeding at the position. Last season, Gibril Wilson (Giants) was headed for a great rookie season at strong safety before being injured in the eighth game and missing the rest of the season. Still, he produced 3 sacks, 49 tackles, 7 assists and 3 interceptions in just 7 starts. In 2003, Ken Hamlin (Seahawks) was the top first year safety (16 games, 0 sacks, 76 tackles, 20 assists, 1 int.). A sample of 19 rookie safeties who went on to become stalwarts shows an average of 15 games, 1 sack, 57 tackles, 13 assists and 2 interceptions. Fewer safeties than cornerbacks are typically highly drafted into the NFL. Veteran safeties as a group, though, tend to be more productive in a fantasy football sense than corners. Thomas Davis (Panthers) may be the only rookie worth considering at this position as a fantasy draft choice. Gas-o-line: PLAY SAFE BY FOREGOING ROOKIE SAFETIES.

Fantasy Football NFL Cheat Sheets, Rankings and Projections