Fantasy Football Impact of 2007 Rookies

Fantasy football impact of 2007 rookies
Calvin Johnson projects to have the best chance to be productive
by-Jeff Mertes

Rookies are usually overrated at most fantasy football drafts.  Truth is, drafting rookies is generally a crapshoot.  And of those neophyte NFL players, about 75% of the Pro Football Writers of America NFL All-Rookie Team for 2006 were drafted in the first three rounds.  First year impact fantasy football players tend to materialize from the top of the NFL draft.  Sure, there is the Marques Colston-type aberration here and there, tabbed in the later rounds, but immediately of fantasy value.  Don’t bet on being able to figure out who will be the rookie sleeper to make your season championship dreams come true.  And always keep in mind that it takes most players two to three years (or more) in the league to become fantasy stat producers. 

It’s best to slot rookies into later round fantasy draft spots, if at all.   Adding an up-and-coming rook to your roster after the season starts often makes the most sense. 

Based on factors including NFL team depth at a given position, demonstrated physical ability, proneness to injury, collegiate production, intangibles, and the historical rookie impact of players at a given position, here’s how the first three rounds of the 2007 NFL draft stack up from a fantasy production point of view - 

2007 Preseason Rookie Immediate Fantasy Impact
Scale: 0-5
Pos. Player
40 & Stature
Drft #
 College NFL
RATING
WR Calvin Johnson
4.37,6-5,239
2
 Georgia Tech Lions
4.28
DE Gaines Adams
4.67,6-5,258
4
 Clemson Bucs
4.25
CB Darrelle Revis
4.40,5-11,204
14
 Pitt Jets
4.25
DE Jamaal Anderson
4.79,6-5,283
8
 Arkansas Falcons
4.23
RB Marshawn Lynch
4.47,5-11,215
12
 Cal Bills
4.23
CB Leon Hall
4.43,5-11,193
18
 Michigan Bengals
4.22
WR Anthony Gonzalez
4.46,6-0,193
32
 Ohio St. Colts
4.22
CB Aaron Ross
4.46,6-1,193
20
 Texas Giants
4.20
LB Paul Posluszny
4.71,6-2,236
34
 Penn St. Bills
4.20
RB Brian Leonard
4.52,6-1,238
52
 Rutgers Rams
4.20
FS Sabby Piscatelli
4.5,6-4,224
64
 Oregon St. Bucs
4.18
SS LaRon Landry
4.38,6-1,213
6
 LSU Redskins
4.17
DE Adam Carriker
4.91,6-6,296
13
 Nebraska Rams
4.17
LB Lawrence Timmons
4.67,6-1,234
15
 Florida St. Steelers
4.17
FS Reggie Nelson
4.51,5-11,198
21
 Florida Jaguars
4.17
DE Dan Bazuin
4.68,6-3,265
62
 C.Michigan Bears
4.17
DE Tim Crowder
4.76,6-4,271
56
 Texas Broncos
4.12
DE Victor Abiamiri
4.77,6-5,271
57
 Notre Dame Eagles
4.12
DE Charles Johnson
4.68,6-2,272
83
 Georgia Panthers
4.10
LB Patrick Willis
4.53,6-1,242
11
 Miss. 49ers
4.08
WR Steve Smith
4.45,5-11,197
51
 USC Giants
4.08
WR Jacoby Jones
4.53,6-3,210
73
 Lane Texans
4.08
TE Zach Miller
4.89,6-4,256
38
 Arizona St. Raiders
4.07
DE Anthony Spencer
4.73,6-3,281
26
 Purdue Cowboys
4.07
CB Chris Houston
4.36,5-10,186
41
 Arkansas Falcons
4.07
DE Alan Branch
5.08,6-6,324
33
 Michigan Cardinals
4.03
CB Daymeion Hughes
4.68,5-10,190
95
 Cal Colts
4.03
WR Johnnie Lee Higgins
4.53,5-11,184
99
 UTEP Raiders
4.02
TE Greg Olsen
4.53,6-6,254
31
 Miami Bears
4.00
LB LaMarr Woodley
4.62,6-2,269
46
 Michigan Steelers
4.00
CB Josh Wilson
4.42,5-9,189
55
 Maryland Seahawks
4.00
LB Stewart Bradley
4.74,6-4,254
87
 Nebraska Eagles
4.00
FS Michael Griffin
4.48,5-11,202
19
 Texas Titans
3.98
WR Dwayne Jarrett
4.64,6-4,219
45
 USC Panthers
3.98
DE Quentin Moses
4.72,6-5,249
65
 Georgia Raiders
3.98
LB Quincy Black
4.45,6-2,240
68
 New Mexico Bucs
3.98
SS Eric Weddle
4.52,5-11,203
37
 Utah Chargers
3.97
LB Justin Durant
4.56,6-1,230
48
 Hampton Jaguars
3.97
WR Laurent Robinson
4.41,6-1,193
75
 Illinois St. Falcons
3.95
FS Gerald Alexander
4.53,6-0,210
61
 Boise St. Lions
3.95
LB Michael Okwo
4.77,5-11,232
94
 Stanford Bears
3.95
WR Dwayne Bowe
4.56,6-2,221
23
 LSU Chiefs
3.93
WR James Jones
4.6,6-1,207
78
 San Jose St. Packers
3.93
WR Paul Williams
4.53,6-1,209
80
 Fresno St. Titans
3.93
DT Quinn Pitcock
5.09,6-3,301
98
 Ohio St. Colts
3.93
RB Adrian Peterson
4.41,6-2,217
7
 Oklahoma Vikings
3.92
TE Matt Spaeth
4.87,6-7,262
77
 Minnesota Steelers
3.92
LB David Harris
4.61,6-2,243
47
 Michigan Jets
3.90
RB Garrett Wolfe
4.46,5-7,177
93
 N.Illinois Bears
3.90
WR Robert Meachem
4.41,6-2,214
27
 Tennessee Saints
3.88
WR Ted Ginn
4.44,5-11,178
9
 Ohio St. Dolphins
3.87
DT Turk McBride
4.96,6-4,276
54
 Tennessee Chiefs
3.87
RB Lorenzo Booker
4.5,5-10,191
71
 Florida St. Dolphins
3.87
DT Amobi Okoye
5.07,6-2,306
10
 Louisville Texans
3.85
WR Sidney Rice
4.54,6-4,200
44
 S. Carolina Vikings
3.85
DE Ikaika Alama-Francis
4.78,6-5,250
58
 Hawaii Lions
3.85
CB Marcus McCauley
4.4,6-1,203
72
 Fresno St. Vikings
3.85
WR Yamon Figurs
4.35,5-11,174
74
 Kansas St. Ravens
3.85
WR Mike Walker
4.45,6-2,209
79
 C.Florida Jaguars
3.85
WR Jason Hill
4.38,6-1,204
76
 Washington St. 49ers
3.83
CB Jonathan Wade
4.41,5-10,193
84
 Tennessee Rams
3.83
RB Tony Hunt
4.55,6-2,233
90
 Penn. St. Eagles
3.83
RB Kenny Irons
4.47,5-11,203
49
 Auburn Bengals
3.82
LB Buster Davis
4.64,5-10,244
69
 Florida St. Cardinals
3.82
RB Brandon Jackson
4.41,5-10,210
63
 Nebraska Packers
3.80
SS Aaron Rouse
4.55,6-4,225
89
 Virginia Tech Packers
3.78
CB Usama Young
4.39,5-11,186
66
 Kent. St. Saints
3.77
FS Brandon Meriweather
4.50,5-11,195
24
 Miami Patriots
3.75
DT Tank Tyler
5.27,6-2,323
82
 N.Carolina St. Chiefs
3.73
LB Anthony Waters
4.69,6-3,245
96
 Clemson Chargers
3.72
DT Brandon Mebane
5.09,6-1,305
85
 Cal Seahawks
3.70
LB Jon Beason
4.63,6-0,237
25
 Miami Panthers
3.67
DT Jay Alford
5.01,6-3,304
81
 Penn St. Giants
3.65
DT Ray McDonald
4.9,6-3,281
97
 Florida 49ers
3.63
DE Jarvis Moss
4.75,6-7,250
17
 Florida Broncos
3.60
WR Craig Davis
4.45,6-1,207
30
 LSU Chargers
3.58
RB Chris Henry
4.41,5-11,230
50
 Arizona Titans
3.58
QB JaMarcus Russell
4.84,6-6,256
1
 LSU Raiders
3.57
DT Justin Harrell
5.06,6-4,300
16
 Tennessee Packers
3.52
CB Eric Wright
4.37,5-11,192
53
 UNLV Browns
3.50
QB Brady Quinn
4.80,6-4,232
22
 Notre Dame Browns
3.45
QB Kevin Kolb
4.87,6-3,216
36
 Houston Eagles
3.28
QB John Beck
4.75,6-2,215
40
 BYU Dolphins
3.28
QB Trent Edwards
4.78,6-4,231
92
 Stanford Bills
3.25
QB Drew Stanton
4.77,6-3,226
43
 Michigan St. Lions
3.13

Preseason Rookie Rating by Position
Scale: 0-5
Pos. Player
40 & Stature
Drft #
 College NFL
RATING
QB JaMarcus Russell
4.84,6-6,256
1
 LSU Raiders
3.57
Brady Quinn
4.80,6-4,232
22
 Notre Dame Browns
3.45
Kevin Kolb
4.87,6-3,216
36
 Houston Eagles
3.28
John Beck
4.75,6-2,215
40
 BYU Dolphins
3.28
Trent Edwards
4.78,6-4,231
92
 Stanford Bills
3.25
Drew Stanton
4.77,6-3,226
43
 Michigan St. Lions
3.13
RB Marshawn Lynch
4.47,5-11,215
12
 Cal Bills
4.23
Brian Leonard
4.52,6-1,238
52
 Rutgers Rams
4.20
Adrian Peterson
4.41,6-2,217
7
 Oklahoma Vikings
3.92
Garrett Wolfe
4.46,5-7,177
93
 N.Illinois Bears
3.90
Lorenzo Booker
4.5,5-10,191
71
 Florida St. Dolphins
3.87
Tony Hunt
4.55,6-2,233
90
 Penn. St. Eagles
3.83
Kenny Irons
4.47,5-11,203
49
 Auburn Bengals
3.82
Brandon Jackson
4.41,5-10,210
63
 Nebraska Packers
3.80
Chris Henry
4.41,5-11,230
50
 Arizona Titans
3.58
WR Calvin Johnson
4.37,6-5,239
2
 Georgia Tech Lions
4.28
Anthony Gonzalez
4.46,6-0,193
32
 Ohio St. Colts
4.22
Steve Smith
4.45,5-11,197
51
 USC Giants
4.08
Jacoby Jones
4.53,6-3,210
73
 Lane Texans
4.08
Johnnie Lee Higgins
4.53,5-11,184
99
 UTEP Raiders
4.02
Dwayne Jarrett
4.64,6-4,219
45
 USC Panthers
3.98
Laurent Robinson
4.41,6-1,193
75
 Illinois St. Falcons
3.95
Dwayne Bowe
4.56,6-2,221
23
 LSU Chiefs
3.93
James Jones
4.6,6-1,207
78
 San Jose St. Packers
3.93
Paul Williams
4.53,6-1,209
80
 Fresno St. Titans
3.93
Robert Meachem
4.41,6-2,214
27
 Tennessee Saints
3.88
Ted Ginn
4.44,5-11,178
9
 Ohio St. Dolphins
3.87
Sidney Rice
4.54,6-4,200
44
 S. Carolina Vikings
3.85
Yamon Figurs
4.35,5-11,174
74
 Kansas St. Ravens
3.85
Mike Walker
4.45,6-2,209
79
 C.Florida Jaguars
3.85
Jason Hill
4.38,6-1,204
76
 Washington St. 49ers
3.83
Craig Davis
4.45,6-1,207
30
 LSU Chargers
3.58
TE Zach Miller
4.89,6-4,256
38
 Arizona St. Raiders
4.07
Greg Olsen
4.53,6-6,254
31
 Miami Bears
4.00
Matt Spaeth
4.87,6-7,262
77
 Minnesota Steelers
3.92
DE Gaines Adams
4.67,6-5,258
4
 Clemson Bucs
4.25
Jamaal Anderson
4.79,6-5,283
8
 Arkansas Falcons
4.23
Adam Carriker
4.91,6-6,296
13
 Nebraska Rams
4.17
Dan Bazuin
4.68,6-3,265
62
 C.Michigan Bears
4.17
Tim Crowder
4.76,6-4,271
56
 Texas Broncos
4.12
Victor Abiamiri
4.77,6-5,271
57
 Notre Dame Eagles
4.12
Charles Johnson
4.68,6-2,272
83
 Georgia Panthers
4.10
Anthony Spencer
4.73,6-3,281
26
 Purdue Cowboys
4.07
Alan Branch
5.08,6-6,324
33
 Michigan Cardinals
4.03
Quentin Moses
4.72,6-5,249
65
 Georgia Raiders
3.98
Ikaika Alama-Francis
4.78,6-5,250
58
 Hawaii Lions
3.85
Jarvis Moss
4.75,6-7,250
17
 Florida Broncos
3.60
DT Justin Harrell
5.06,6-4,300
16
 Tennessee Packers
3.52
Quinn Pitcock
5.09,6-3,301
98
 Ohio St. Colts
3.93
Turk McBride
4.96,6-4,276
54
 Tennessee Chiefs
3.87
Amobi Okoye
5.07,6-2,306
10
 Louisville Texans
3.85
Tank Tyler
5.27,6-2,323
82
 N.Carolina St. Chiefs
3.73
Brandon Mebane
5.09,6-1,305
85
 Cal Seahawks
3.70
Jay Alford
5.01,6-3,304
81
 Penn St. Giants
3.65
Ray McDonald
4.9,6-3,281
97
 Florida 49ers
3.63
LB Paul Posluszny
4.71,6-2,236
34
 Penn St. Bills
4.20
Lawrence Timmons
4.67,6-1,234
15
 Florida St. Steelers
4.17
Patrick Willis
4.53,6-1,242
11
 Miss. 49ers
4.08
LaMarr Woodley
4.62,6-2,269
46
 Michigan Steelers
4.00
Stewart Bradley
4.74,6-4,254
87
 Nebraska Eagles
4.00
Quincy Black
4.45,6-2,240
68
 New Mexico Bucs
3.98
Justin Durant
4.56,6-1,230
48
 Hampton Jaguars
3.97
Michael Okwo
4.77,5-11,232
94
 Stanford Bears
3.95
David Harris
4.61,6-2,243
47
 Michigan Jets
3.90
Buster Davis
4.64,5-10,244
69
 Florida St. Cardinals
3.82
Anthony Waters
4.69,6-3,245
96
 Clemson Chargers
3.72
Jon Beason
4.63,6-0,237
25
 Miami Panthers
3.67
CB Darrelle Revis
4.40,5-11,204
14
 Pitt Jets
4.25
Leon Hall
4.43,5-11,193
18
 Michigan Bengals
4.22
Aaron Ross
4.46,6-1,193
20
 Texas Giants
4.20
Chris Houston
4.36,5-10,186
41
 Arkansas Falcons
4.07
Daymeion Hughes
4.68,5-10,190
95
 Cal Colts
4.03
Josh Wilson
4.42,5-9,189
55
 Maryland Seahawks
4.00
Marcus McCauley
4.4,6-1,203
72
 Fresno St. Vikings
3.85
Jonathan Wade
4.41,5-10,193
84
 Tennessee Rams
3.83
Usama Young
4.39,5-11,186
66
 Kent. St. Saints
3.77
Eric Wright
4.37,5-11,192
53
 UNLV Browns
3.50
FS Sabby Piscatelli
4.5,6-4,224
64
 Oregon St. Bucs
4.18
Reggie Nelson
4.51,5-11,198
21
 Florida Jaguars
4.17
Michael Griffin
4.48,5-11,202
19
 Texas Titans
3.98
Gerald Alexander
4.53,6-0,210
61
 Boise St. Lions
3.95
Brandon Meriweather
4.50,5-11,195
24
 Miami Patriots
3.75
SS LaRon Landry
4.38,6-1,213
6
 LSU Redskins
4.17
Eric Weddle
4.52,5-11,203
37
 Utah Chargers
3.97
Aaron Rouse
4.55,6-4,225
89
 Virginia Tech Packers
3.78